The problem with toe-in-the-water political engagement is that one word is never enough. In response to the latest news, I feel compelled to say a little more. Apologies again.
On Wednesday, the conventional wisdom, based on "moral values" exit polling, was that opposition to gay rights was decisive. Three days later, the conventional wisdom is that it had little or no effect.
I don't know which is right. The analysis supporting the new CW seems as crude and imprecise as the analysis supporting the old. I certainly hope the new CW is correct; it would make me feel better about the presidential election. Beyond that, though, it makes little difference.
Put simply, we will never know if Issue 1 drove 135,000 extra Bush voters to the polls in Ohio, but it remains depressing that a measure banning not just marriage but civil unions could pass by such a huge margin. That and numerous other losses around the country are cause for sadness.
Sadness, but not surrender. Opposition to gay rights remains strong around the country. Some, like Bill Clinton, will say that we should abandon the cause to win votes. I think our response should always be John Kerry's: never.
Finally, the news cycle swing is itself worth pondering. The old CW may have represented an unhealthy tendency on the part of some lefties (myself included, perhaps) to just throw up their hands and say "they're all bigots." That is both false and unproductive.
There may also be a mirror-image pathology on the other side, reflected in the new CW, where cosmopolitan Republicans go out of their way to deny that their victories are in any way built on bigotry. I have in mind folks like Giuliani, Eugene Volokh, David Brooks, and Glenn Reynolds -- Republicans who live in cities, work in newsrooms or universities, and have some contact with gay people. I hope they will recognize that bigotry still exists and that it must be fought. I hope that someday a Hubert Humphrey figure from within the Republican Party will risk votes by standing up and challenging the GOP to support the freedom and equality of gay citizens. I don't know whether it will ever happen.
On Wednesday, the conventional wisdom, based on "moral values" exit polling, was that opposition to gay rights was decisive. Three days later, the conventional wisdom is that it had little or no effect.
I don't know which is right. The analysis supporting the new CW seems as crude and imprecise as the analysis supporting the old. I certainly hope the new CW is correct; it would make me feel better about the presidential election. Beyond that, though, it makes little difference.
Put simply, we will never know if Issue 1 drove 135,000 extra Bush voters to the polls in Ohio, but it remains depressing that a measure banning not just marriage but civil unions could pass by such a huge margin. That and numerous other losses around the country are cause for sadness.
Sadness, but not surrender. Opposition to gay rights remains strong around the country. Some, like Bill Clinton, will say that we should abandon the cause to win votes. I think our response should always be John Kerry's: never.
Finally, the news cycle swing is itself worth pondering. The old CW may have represented an unhealthy tendency on the part of some lefties (myself included, perhaps) to just throw up their hands and say "they're all bigots." That is both false and unproductive.
There may also be a mirror-image pathology on the other side, reflected in the new CW, where cosmopolitan Republicans go out of their way to deny that their victories are in any way built on bigotry. I have in mind folks like Giuliani, Eugene Volokh, David Brooks, and Glenn Reynolds -- Republicans who live in cities, work in newsrooms or universities, and have some contact with gay people. I hope they will recognize that bigotry still exists and that it must be fought. I hope that someday a Hubert Humphrey figure from within the Republican Party will risk votes by standing up and challenging the GOP to support the freedom and equality of gay citizens. I don't know whether it will ever happen.
posted by Ted at 8:17 AM
